© EU, 2023 One year of temporary protection for those fleeing the war in Ukraine The study indicates that the war and the resulting displacement exacerbate Ukraine’s population decline and ageing, with drastic changes to the population structure - in particular the younger age groups. In the most pessimistic scenario, which foresees a long war and a low number of Ukrainian nationals returning after the war, the results project a 31% decline of the population by 2052.Įven in an optimistic scenario where Ukraine recovers from the war quickly and becomes a country with more inward than outward migration, the results suggest a population decline by 21%. In all four scenarios, the population of Ukraine is projected to further decline until 2052. The study illustrates how the forced displacement and long-term migration patterns impact Ukraine’s future population size. The researchers developed four hypothetical scenarios with different assumptions on the length of the war, level of displacement and longer-term migration patterns, including returns after the war. Four what-if scenarios on Ukraine’s demographic future In a new report, scientists from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) estimate that the country could be losing over a third of its population by 2052. The Ukrainian population was already shrinking rapidly before the war due to low birth rates, high levels of mortality and high emigration rates. This means that the war has displaced between 25% and 30% of the entire Ukrainian population within and outside Ukraine. It is estimated that by the end of January 2023, there were around 5.3 million people displaced internally across Ukraine, while approximately 7 million had fled abroad with around 4 million to the EU. In the space of one year, many Ukrainians had to flee their country, which lead to the fastest and largest displacement of people in Europe since the Second World War. On 24 February 2023, Russia’s war against Ukraine reached its one-year mark.
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